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If your heart rate has been climbing on Sundays this fall, you are not imagining it. Through six weeks, 31 games have been decided by a score in the final five minutes or in overtime, the most through Week 6 in NFL history. Another 57 have been decided by one score, matching 2022 for the most ever at this point.
Our NFL Week 7 preview starts with a slate that looks built for more of the same. It has a Thursday night showdown, a first-ever regular season game in Paris- if riots and violence do not disrupt it and an unbeaten Chiefs team walking into a very personal Sunday night.
Thursday night: Patriots at Bears (8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video)
This is the closest call on the board. New England and Chicago are both 4-2, and both quarterbacks arrive with something to prove.
Drake Maye has been on a tear, with 11 touchdowns in his last three games (10 passing, one rushing). One more game with three or more touchdown passes would make him the sixth quarterback under 25 in the Super Bowl era to do it four weeks in a row. The last to do it was Justin Herbert in 2020.
However, Caleb Williams brings a different kind of milestone. He threw his 50th career touchdown pass last week, and he has only 14 career interceptions. That puts him with Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes as the only quarterbacks in NFL history with fewer than 15 picks at the time of their 50th touchdown pass.
Our lean: Patriots by a field goal. Chicago is at home, but Maye’s form is hard to bet against right now. If Williams keeps protecting the ball, though, this could go the other way.
Steelers and Saints cross the Atlantic (9:30 a.m. ET, NFL Network)
History will be made at Stade de France, site of the first regular season NFL game in Paris. Pittsburgh (4-2) and New Orleans (2-4) are both coming off wins, and both have experience overseas. The Steelers are 1-1 in international games, and the Saints have won two of three.
The quarterbacks could steal the show. Aaron Rodgers and Tyler Shough are tied for fourth in the league with 12 touchdown passes, and each is one of five quarterbacks with three or more touchdown passes in three games this season.
However, Rodgers has a history lesson of his own. Last week he threw a touchdown pass in his 255th career game, playoffs included, passing Peyton Manning for fourth place all-time. Only Tom Brady, Brett Favre and Drew Brees have more. Saints running back Alvin Kamara also joined an exclusive club last week. He became the sixth player ever with 5,000 career rushing yards and 5,000 receiving yards.
Our lean: Steelers, but expect points. New Orleans’ record is worse than its play, and Shough is keeping pace with Rodgers.
Sunday night: Chiefs at Seahawks (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC)
Kansas City is the last unbeaten team in the AFC. A win would make the Chiefs 6-0 for the fourth time in franchise history, after 2003, 2013 and 2024.
The storyline is Kenneth Walker. He spent his first four seasons in Seattle and was the Super Bowl LX MVP for the Seahawks last year. Now he leads the NFL with 665 rushing yards in a Chiefs uniform, and he heads back to Seattle with 760 scrimmage yards and eight touchdowns. Only five players have ever put up 750 yards and eight touchdowns in their first five games: Jim Brown, Eric Dickerson, Marshall Faulk, Emmitt Smith and Priest Holmes. Walker is the sixth.
Furthermore, he is also the third player in the Super Bowl era with at least two touchdowns in four of his team’s first five games, joining Emerson Boozer and Calvin Johnson.
Additionally, Seattle has its own star in Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who leads the league with 717 receiving yards. Smith-Njigba has 100 receiving yards in five of Seattle’s first six games, something only Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs and Marvin Harrison have done since 2000.
Our lean: Chiefs by a score. With so many games decided in the final minutes this year, expect this one to come down to the last possession.
The bottom line for Week 7
Week 7 should tell us whether the Chiefs are as strong as their record suggests, and whether Maye and Williams are ready for national spotlights. If the pattern holds, at least one of these three games will come down to the final possession.
Looking for more? Read our breakdown of the unbeaten 49ers and Vikings and our look at Week 6 stats, highlights, and scores. You can find kickoff times and TV information on the official NFL schedule, and you can check any career stat at Pro Football Reference.
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