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All Business this week as the American Conference college football slate has us asking – who’s a contender and who’s a pretender? While the established top tier teams Memphis and USF have assumed clear victories ahead, other supposed championship contenders Tulane and North Texas face-off against rising squads from West Point and San Antonio. Will the Green Wave stay on-pace for a potential CFP run? Can North Texas rebound from a bad loss to a tough South Florida and remain an overperforming dark horse? Can Army or UTSA build on recent success to get an upset and upend the current order of the American Conference?
GAME OF THE WEEK 1 – North Texas to collapse? UTSA to ascend?
- UTSA (3-3) @ North Texas (5-1) – 3:00pm, Saturday (ESPN+)
Coming off a momentum shattering defeat to South Florida, North Texas once again plays host as UTSA comes into to Denton with the Roadrunners looking to build on momentum of their own. North Texas’ 63-36 home loss to the Bulls derailed their undefeated season, showed their high-powered offense to be mortal, and potentially took the wind out of Cinderella’s green colored sails. This week the Mean Green need to get back in the win column if they have any hope of reviving their dark horse run. Unfortunately, they are facing a UTSA team that overcame a slow start to the season, has won three of their last four, and is currently walking tall after a 61-13 dismantling of the Rice Owls last week. North Texas opened as -4.5pt favorites, but which versions of these team will we see?
The 2024 Mean Green provided showstopping offensive highlights but had the defensive prowess of a cardboard box in the rain. New DC Skyler Cassity brought a new, stout defense that helped North Texas start 5-0, but last week USF’s high powered, up-tempo offense put up 42 points in the second half behind the dynamic play of Bulls QB Byrum Brown. Now North Texas faces another highly mobile pass-first QB in UTSA’s Owen McCown. Combined with the Roadrunner’s strong rushing offence (180 yards/game) behind Senior RB Robert Henry Jr (92 rushes, 730 yards, 8TD), the Mean Green will have to do something special to keep UTSA’s offense in check. Despite a 3-3 record, the Roadrunners have scored less than 20 only once this season and put up over 40 points three times (including 61 last week).
Offensively, North Texas QB Drew Mestemaker will need to shake off last week’s disappointment as well. After playing like a diamond in the rough through five games, Mestemaker threw three interceptions last week, and for the first time looked slightly above average at best. UTSA’s defense excelled at shutting down Rice’s triple option a week ago but has been shown to be porous in the face of competent passing. North Texas’s path to victory will rely upon solid QB play on offense, and a return to the defense seen earlier in the season.
GAME OF THE WEEK 1A – Will Tulane Get Revenge or Is Army The Real AC Contender?
- Army (3-3) @ Tulane (5-1) – Noon, Saturday (ESPNU)
In a rematch of the 2024 American Conference Championship, the Black Knights now head south to see if they can both string together a three-game win streak and upend the current order of the AC by toppling Tulane. The Green Wave have looked strong this year despite the pressure of being a preseason favorite to win the American and potential CFP birth. Currently left just out of the AP Poll due to an ugly Week 4 loss to then #13 (now #4) Ole Miss Rebels, Tulane is undefeated in AC play (2-0) and has P4 wins against Duke and Northwestern, both 4-2 respectively.
Army has been very up and down through six games, starting the season with a home loss to #3 FCS Tarlton St in OT before upsetting Kansas St in Manhattan. Another overtime loss at home to North Texas, followed by a sloppy Thursday Night loss at Dowdy-Ficklen to ECU, Army has clawed its way back to .500 with wins over hapless UAB and Charlotte. The story of Army’s season has been the questions of the quarterback. Senior Dewayne Coleman started the season as QB1 running the triple-option primarily out of the shotgun, a scheme that worked in his only start of 2024, a 20-3 win over rival Air Force. After Coleman was banged up in the season opener, Junior QB Cale Hellums lead the upset of Kansas St looking like Bryson Daily 2.0, running power QB packages and Army’s customary under-center triple option. Unfortunately, Hellums’ three first quarter turnovers (leading to a 21pt deficit) against North Texas brought the return of Coleman who led Army to the brink before falling in overtime. The next several games provided a Quarterback-By-Committee as the Black Knights tried to find their rhythm with Coleman and Hellums trading quarters and at some times drives. Even last week against Charlotte, HC Jeff Monken was cagey as to who was going to be QB1 down the stretch, however while at the reigns, Hellums and the offensive line started to gel and for the first time since the start of Week 3, Army has a dedicated QB1.
BYU transfer QB Jake Retzlaff has provided the muscle for Tulane’s offense this year, filling in for the departed Darian Mensah who after taking the Green Wave to the AC Championship in 2024, jumped ship to Duke. Combined with 2024 star running back Makhi Hughes transferring to Oregon last spring, Retzlaff has had to shoulder the burden of offensive production. The mobile pocket-passer is averaging 195yrds/game in the air on 58.4% passing, and 65yrds/game rushing. Perhaps troubling for Tulane is Retzlaff’s modest number of passing touchdowns (4) relative to his rushing touchdowns (7), combined with the fact that he accounts for 35% of all Green Wave rushing yards and 60% of all rushing touchdowns. On top of which, Tulane has had recent struggles in the red zone as drives begin to stall as the field gets short. The first half of last week’s win over East Carolina saw four effective drives stonewalled, leading to only 12 points as Tulane had to resort to field goals. The good news, however, is Retzlaff’s ability to spread the ball through the air in 2025 completing passes to 17 different receivers, including 12 different receivers in last week’s win over ECU.
I have made the case that too much of the offense is running through Retzlaff, and if Army can get him out of rhythm, will Tulane have the offensive tools to get the win? Army DC Nate Woody prides himself on his Bend-Don’t-Break defense wherein the typically smaller, less athletic Army D is forced back into their own half, before bowing their back and stopping drives on a shorter field. Offensively, Army’s gameplan is simple – control the ball, control the clock, keep opposing offenses off the field, and control the game through slow tempo power running. If Army can effectively maintain possession, convert drives into points, and do just enough bending not breaking, Tulane will find themselves in the same place as Kansas St, taking a tough L at home.
East Carolina: The Thursday Night Warriors
- Tulsa (2-4) @ East Carolina (3-3) – 7:30pm, Thursday (ESPN)
The Pirates once again host an American Conference game Thursday night primetime, this time hoping the ships will stay afloat in a Golden Hurricane. Losing 26-19 to Tulane last week, East Carolina needs to get more consistent play for a full 60 minutes. In quarters 1, 2, and 4 last week, ECU was outscored 26-3 by the Green Wave. In quarter 3, they played beautifully on both sides and outscored Tulane 16-0. Two weeks prior, ECU jumped out to a magnificent 21-0 lead against Army in the first quarter (also on a Thursday night), before doing almost nothing offensively until a fake FG touchdown mid-way through the fourth. ECU’s path the victory will have to come through consistent play the whole game.
Tre Lamb’s first season as Tulsa HC has been equally inconsistent. Impressive in their two victories, the Golden Hurricane dispatched FCS Abilene Christian and upset Oklahoma State in Stillwater, leading to the Cowboy’s sacking of longtime coach Mike Gundy. Outside of those bright spots, Tulsa is 0-4 and losing by an average of 20.5pts. The smallest FBS school in the nation (~4,100 students), one of Tulsa’s biggest issues this year is turnovers. Through six games they are -4 having thrown seven interceptions and lost 5 fumbles. I’m not saying its impossible for Lamb to steal a win Thursday, but at +16.5pt underdogs, is certainly will be close to impossible.
Bulls Find Themselves Against Another Offensive Power
- FAU (3-3) @ #19 USF (5-1) 7:30pm, Saturday (ESPNU)
South Florida returns to Ray Jay to face a high-powered American Conference offensive for the second week in a row as the Florida Atlantic Owls head east from Rat Mouth. Last week the Bulls faced North Texas who averaged 44pts/game, now play host to an FAU team that’s scored over 50 in half their games this year.
Currently ranked #19, the Bulls have their best AP ranking since Week 8 of the 2018 season, powered by QB Byrum Brown averaging 240yrds and 2TD’s per game through the air, and another 60yrds and 1TD per game on the ground. Expect Brown to cut ribbons through FAU’s porous defense that’s allows 33pts/game and gives up over 200yrd/game passing. Expect Bulls wide receivers Chas Nimrod (23rec, 466yrd, 3TD) and Keshaun Singleton (17rec, 294yrd, 3TD) to have monster days.
For Florida Atlantic to stand a chance, they are going to need some offensive magic to keep pace with the powerful USF offense. Through six games, the Owls rely almost exclusively on their passing game, averaging over 320yrds/game compared to only 121yrds/game rushing. Junior QB Caden Veltkamp is an accurate passer (65%) and has 14 passing TD’s but has also thrown nine interceptions. Staring up at a +21.5 spread, FAU has their work cut out for them to leave Tampa over .500.
Baptism By Fire: Memphis Looks To Cook UAB Interim HC
- #22 Memphis (6-0) @ UAB (2-4) – 4:00pm, Saturday (ESPN2)
The Trent Dilfer experiment has failed, unfortunately the administration at the University of Alabama – Birmingham didn’t realize until six games into the 2025 season. Hired prior to the 2023 season, Mr Dilfer went 7-17 in his first two years at the Blazers’ helm, at which point the fanbase were collectively calling for axe. I’m not one to celebrate someone’s downfall, but any reasonable observer could see the finite tenure of the former NFL QB. It wasn’t just the record, it was just the press conferences, it wasn’t just the soundbites, or the locker room chaos that finally did it. It was the serial under performance, the lack of accountability, and over and over again stealing defeat from the jaws of victory – THIS has been a long time coming, and now the Blazers turn the page.
Interim HC Alex Mortensen will lead UAB through what’s left of the 2025 season. OC from day one of the Dilfer administration, Mortensen is a former FBS QB who has spent time coaching in college, the NFL, and the short-lived Association of American Football. Will he be able to get the program on track? Anything is possible, but considering he’s been a driving force under Dilfer, I am skeptical.
In terms of the Memphis Tigers, they are good to go. HC Ryan Silverfield has brought the team to prominence year in and year out since his hiring in 2020. Despite losing the vast majority of starters on both offense and defense from 2024, due to graduation or transfer, he has not missed a beat leading the Tigers to ranked 6-0 start. Homegrown talent and transfer recruitment has paid dividends as Memphis is undefeated, 1-0 against the “vaunted” SEC, and aiming for a conference championship and a CFP birth. Let’s not mince words: There is no way Memphis loses this game.
Can Charlotte Win A Meaning Full Game? Not this week…
- Temple (3-3) @ Charlotte (1-5) 3:30pm, Saturday (ESPN+)
A game that I would have expected to be my “Decrepit Meets The Non-Existent” pick of the week, it would appear that Temple has a for real football team. While only a modest 3-3, their heartbreaking last-minute defeat at the hands of Navy last week shows just how far the Owls have come. New HC KC Keeler has already surpassed expectations and the high quality play of QB Evan Simon has shown Temple to be a program on the rise. Temple’s improved play and discipline can exemplified in one sentence: In 2025 Temple is 3-3 and has committed ZERO turnovers.
Meanwhile, in Charlotte things are far less rosy. New HC Time Albin came to Charlotte after building Ohio into a perennial contender to be MAC champion, but unfortunately the talent pool appears to have been too shallow. To top it off, Charlotte AD Mike Hill was relieved of duties on Thursday, a move systematic of a program that needs a full rebuild. A lone win against FCS Monmouth and a dueling QB competition between the original QB2 & QB3 is making for a very shaky first season for Albin. Expect Temple to play relatively conservative and mistake free football and handle the Charlotte 49er’s with relative ease.
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