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The calendar has finally turned to March, and with it comes one of the most entertaining events in college basketball: the Mountain West Conference Tournament at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas.
The 2025-26 season delivered exactly what the Mountain West conference has become known for — depth, parity, and chaos. Multiple teams spent time near the top of the standings, and nearly every contender owns at least one statement win over another conference heavyweight. That parity sets the stage for a tournament in which the difference between cutting down the nets and heading home early could come down to one hot-shooting night or a single defensive stop.
Below is a quick look at every team entering the tournament — what they must do to win the title, the key player who could carry them, and the statistical battle that could determine whether their run continues.
Utah State Aggies
If they want to win the tournament:
Utah State must control tempo and avoid turnovers. The Aggies thrive in structured half-court basketball where their offense can operate efficiently.
Key Player:
Mason Falslev
Key Stat to Win:
Turnovers
Utah State has been among the most efficient offensive teams in the Mountain West this season. When the Aggies limit mistakes and force opponents to execute in the half-court, they become extremely difficult to beat. The Aggies rank #18 in the country in Steal% and 91st in non-steal TO%. Being aggressive, forcing the opponent to protect the ball, and not letting them get where they feel comfortable is how the Aggies can win.
Mason Faslev, being the Key Player, does feel like a cop-out as he is the likely MWC POY, but in a world where the Aggies lost 3 of their last 5 games, Falslev averaged 44% from the field and averaged 12.2 ppg, both below his season averages. Winning the games, especially later in the tournament, will really hinge on his success. If Falslev is running the offense, the Aggies are a well-oiled machine.
San Diego State Aztecs
If they want to win the tournament:
Defense has always been the Aztecs’ calling card, and this season is no different in the Mountain West. If SDSU turns games into physical defensive battles, they can grind through the bracket.
Key Player:
BJ Davis
Key Stat to Win:
Opponent Field Goal Percentage
When San Diego State holds teams below 40 percent shooting, they almost always win. If the Aztecs control the defensive end, they’ll be playing late into championship weekend. The Aztecs rank 27th in the country defensively in 2P% allowed at a strong 47%. While also ranking in the top 50 for Steal % and non-steal TO%, if the Aztecs make you feel uncomfortable, they grind the game to a halt and are comfortable scoring 50 points if it means they win.
With Elzie Harrington’s status unknown for the tournament, the glue guy who once was now falls on the shoulders of 6th man BJ Davis. If Davis can give the Aztecs what Elzie Harrington was doing, I could see them playing on Saturday.
Nevada Wolf Pack
If they want to win the tournament:
Controlling pace, playing their game, and forcing bad possessions on defense
Key Player:
Elijah Price
Key Stat to Win:
3-Point Shooting
The Wolf Pack were much better than many anticipated this season, and it all started on the shoulders of Elijah Price. The 6’10, 205-pound forward thrives on defense, but also eats down low on the boards when left alone. Since the Wolf Pack thrives on 3-point shots, second chance opportunities where everyone closes down to the basket, allowing for kick-out 3’s will be key for the Wolf Pack.
The Wolf Pack ranks 31st nationally in 3P% while a mediocre 328th in 2P%. If the Wolf Pack is scared off the line, they will most certainly lose a game in a track meet.
New Mexico Lobos
If they want to win the tournament:
Speed the game up.
Key Player:
Jake Hall
Key Stat to Win:
Points in Transition
New Mexico plays one of the fastest tempos in the Mountain West. If Hall and the Lobos turn games into track meets, their athleticism can overwhelm opponents. The ability of Jake Hall to completely flip a game on its head in a matter of seconds is truly important to the Lobos. View game vs SDSU on 2/28. The Lobos were down late in the game, Jake Hall hit back-to-back transition 3’s, and then the Lobos were in front.
If Jake Hall can hit 3’s at a consistent stroke like he has over the last 5, watch out!
Grand Canyon Lopes
If they want to win the tournament:
Balanced Scoring
Key Player:
Dusty Stromer
Key Stat to Win:
Bench Scoring
The Lopes are dangerous when they control the glass and generate second-chance opportunities. Dusty Stromer was brought in with a ticket to shoot. In the 2 seasons prior at Gonzaga, Stromer was a great glue guy for Mark Few, averaging 5/3/1 for the Bulldogs in 22 minutes per game.
Early on in the season, Dusty was taking a TON of volume but just was not hitting the mark on his shots. With that being said, over his last 3 games, Dusty has found his stroke from behind the arc, going 9/15 from there over 3 games. The Lopes have so desperately needed bench scoring with the injury to Caleb Shaw and now Wilhelm Bridenbach, a true glue guy off the bench that can score at will, is the key to the Lopes playing on Saturday in Vegas.
Boise State Broncos
If they want to win the tournament:
Win the physical battles inside.
Key Player:
Dylan Andrews
Key Stat to Win:
Points in the Paint
Boise State’s identity is toughness. If the Broncos can dominate inside and avoid getting pulled into a perimeter shootout, they’re capable of knocking off higher seeds. The Broncos are hitting 53% from inside the arc this season and rank #10 in the country in FT %. These will be the keys to the Broncos’ success, forcing the issue and scoring where they are comfortable.
UNLV Rebels
If they want to win the tournament:
Shoot the three with confidence
Key Player:
Dravyn Gibbs-Lawhorn
Key Stat to Win:
Three-Point Percentage
UNLV’s offense can get hot quickly. When Gibbs-Lawhorn gets rolling from the perimeter, the Rebels become one of the most explosive teams in the Mountain West bracket. Dravyn enters the tournament shooting 43% from deep this season and is not afraid to shoot it. Over the last 5 games, he has averaged 5 made 3’s per game while averaging 27 ppg as well.
Most teams get scared to shoot it, if it doesn’t start going down early. If the Rebs can get over that fear and be willing to take 25 threes a game knowing that they will eventually fall, the Rebs will be a tough out. Not to mention they are 2-1 this season vs their first 2 opponents, Wyoming and USU. Of all of the “lower seeds,” the Rebs definitely have the most favorable paths of teams needing to win 4 games in 4 days, don’t forget that it’s essentially a protected home game as well!
Colorado State Rams
If they want to win the tournament:
Depth
Key Player:
Brandon Rechsteiner
Key Stat to Win:
Success from the Bench
Colorado State’s offense flows when the ball moves and shooters get clean looks. If the Rams catch fire from deep, they could quickly become one of the tournament’s most dangerous teams. The Rams have 4 different players who average 10 or more per game, with 3 more who average 9+ points.
The fact that Coach Farokhmanesh has seven guys on his team who he can hand the ball to and say, “Go get me a bucket,” is huge. Having to win 4 games in 4 days is a challenge for any team, and having multiple guys you can count on the later you get into the weekend is key.
Wyoming Cowboys
If they want to win the tournament:
Consistency and Limit Streakiness
Key Player:
Gavin Gores
Key Stat to Win:
Taking good, high % shots
Wyoming thrives when games become physical and methodical. If they consistently attack the rim, they can shorten games and stay competitive late. Another factor is their ability to make 3’s in transition. If the Cowboys do that, they can run a track meet. The Cowboys have been a Jekyll and Hyde story, to say the least. They have stretches where they win 5 of 6 games, and they also have stretches where they lose 5 of 6.
Wyoming is one of the few teams, like UNLV, where I would not be upset if they took thirty 3’s a game because they know that they can make them, and once they start making them, it’s hard to beat a team that way.
Fresno State Bulldogs
If they want to win the tournament:
Turn games into defensive battles.
Key Player:
Wilson Jacques
Key Stat to Win:
Rebounding
Fresno State’s defense gives them a fighting chance in every matchup. Early on in the game vs GCU, the Bulldogs were forcing the issue down low, creating contact, and forcing GCU to put a man down low on them. Wilson Jacques was key in that game because it didn’t matter where he was; his hands were almost always on the ball. A team that isn’t known for scoring tons, if you can keep the ball out of the other team’s hands, good things happen.
San José State Spartans
If they want to win the tournament:
Shoot early and often from beyond the arc.
Key Player:
Colby Garland
Key Stat to Win:
Three-Point Attempts
The Spartans’ best path to a surprise run is a hot shooting stretch that swings momentum early. The Spartans have attempted 22 threes per game and in their 3 conference wins this season, averaged a 42% splash rate. Similar to our next team, I don’t suspect them to make too much noise in the tournament, but if they want to surprise the world and even win one game, it’s going to come down to taking 25+ threes but also hitting a good amount of them!
Air Force Falcons
If they want to win the tournament:
Executing in offensive sets
Key Player:
Kameron Sanders
Key Stat to Win:
Assist-to-Turnover Ratio
The Falcons haven’t won a basketball game since Thanksgiving. They currently hold the nation’s longest active losing streak at 24 games, and candidly, I don’t expect that to change. The Falcons average 15 turnovers per game, which, in a conference that thrives on defense at the top, giving opponents more opportunities, is never a good thing for you
Dark Horse to Win the Mountain West Tournament
UNLV Rebels
The Rebels may not enter Las Vegas as a top-four seed, but they might possess the highest offensive ceiling of any team in the field.
Dravyn Gibbs-Lawhorn has shown the ability to take over games offensively, and if UNLV catches fire from three-point range, they could make a dangerous run through the bracket.
In a tournament where momentum often matters more than seeding, UNLV has the firepower to surprise the conference.
Projected All-Tournament Team
Tournament MVP
Makiah Williams — Grand Canyon
All-Tournament Team
- Makiah Williams — Grand Canyon
- Dravyn Gibbs-Lawhorn — UNLV
- Elijah Price — Nevada
- Mason Faslev — Utah State
- Miles Byrd — San Diego State
Final Thoughts
If the regular season proved anything, it’s that the Mountain West might be the deepest conference outside the power leagues.
That depth means one thing in Las Vegas: expect chaos. And certainly don’t be surprised if Gloria Nevarez is handing the trophy to a bid stealer come Saturday
A lower seed will likely make a run, a contender will probably fall early, and by Saturday night, one team will survive the grind and punch its ticket to the NCAA Tournament. And in a conference this competitive, predicting who that will be is anything but easy.
Catch all games and tournament updates on the Mountain West Network and the Mountain West Website.
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