Texas A&M vs. The Citadel: Big Odds, Bigger Pressure

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The Citadel travels to Texas A&M in a game that both teams need a win. For The Citadel they are an enormous underdog for Saturday. But the team in maroon has plenty to prove, too.

The Bulldogs (2-4, 0-3 Southern Conference) visit Texas A&M (3-3, 1-3 SEC) at noon CT (1 p.m. ET). The game will stream on SEC Network+ and the ESPN app.

What the Odds Say

There’s no betting line for this game, which is normal when an SEC team hosts an FCS opponent. The models are lopsided anyway. ESPN’s analytics give the Aggies a 99% chance to win, and one projection has A&M winning 45-7.

However, for the Bulldogs’ problem is easy to see. They’re an FCS team on the road in a 102,733-seat stadium, still searching for their first conference win. Citadel needs a boost as they will head back into conference play after this Saturday showdown.

The Aggies’ problem is harder to spot. They started the season ranked in the top 10 and opened 2-0. They’ve since dropped three of four, including a 27-6 loss at No. 14 Missouri last weekend, and the offense has struggled. This should be A&M’s easiest remaining game, and the schedule gets much tougher from here, with Alabama, South Carolina, Tennessee, Oklahoma and Texas still ahead.

Furthermore, A&M needs six wins for bowl eligibility. A win Saturday would put the Aggies at 4-3, and they’d still need two more against that group. Anything short of a comfortable win would raise more questions than it answers.

A Short Series History

This is only the second meeting between the schools. Texas A&M won the first game 35-3 on Sept. 2, 2006, and leads the series 1-0.

How Both Teams Got Here

The Citadel

The Bulldogs opened the season with a 42-14 loss at Wofford. Their best moment came against VMI, when they scored 28 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to win 35-24, with quarterback Quentin Hayes accounting for three touchdowns.

Last Saturday, they took a 10-0 lead over No. 24 ETSU, then lost 34-16 at home. The Bulldogs’ own postgame coverage blamed second-half miscues. Special teams errors have led to or set up a touchdown in five of six games. Before the ETSU game, The Citadel ranked seventh in the FCS in rushing at 229.4 yards per game.

Texas A&M

The Aggies started with a 50-0 win over Missouri State and a 48-20 win over Arizona State. Then came a 31-21 home loss to Kentucky, a loss at LSU and a 34-7 win over Arkansas. The Missouri game was the low point. Quarterback Marcel Reed was 19-of-39 for 189 yards with two interceptions, and reports said the Aggies had only two first downs through three quarters. He was sacked three times and hurried 13 other times.

It’s a sharp turn from last year, when A&M went 11-2, 7-1 in the SEC, and reached the College Football Playoff.

Depth Chart Breakdown

The Citadel

The offense runs through senior quarterback Quentin Hayes (6-2, 200) and a veteran line. Tackles Darwin Murillo (6-4, 310) and Brady Pickett (6-3, 310) anchor a group that averages about 302 to 307 pounds, depending on whether Aiden Wiles or Andrew Tumbleston starts at right guard. Gavin Garcia (5-8, 195) is the lead back, Damir Abdullah(6-5, 225) is the biggest target outside, and Braylon Knauth plays slot receiver and returns punts and kicks.

On defense, 330-pound tackle Brandan Green leads the front, joined by Maurice Bonneau Jr. (6-1, 245) and David Alexander (6-3, 285). Zyion Brown (6-0, 240) anchors the linebackers, and the secondary includes Khaleb Bridges, DK McGruder, Peyton Betts and Tre’ McLeod. Senior Evan Kiely kicks, and Jack Weil punts and holds.

Texas A&M

Reed (6-1, 185) is the starter, with Brady Hart (6-4, 200) and Helaman Casuga (6-0, 213) behind him. Rueben Owens II (5-11, 215) and Jamarion Morrow (5-9, 200) share the top spot at running back. Mario Craver (5-9, 180), Isaiah Horton (6-4, 215) and Ashton Bethel-Roman (6-0, 193) lead the receivers, and Micah Riley (6-5, 263) is the top tight end.

Size is the biggest difference. Tyree Adams (6-7, 305), Trovon Baugh (6-4, 335), Mark Nabou Jr. (6-4, 307), Wilkin Formby (6-7, 320) and Lamont Rogers (6-6, 340) average about 321 pounds, roughly 15 to 20 pounds more per player than The Citadel’s line.

Defensively, T.J. Searcy, DJ Hicks, CJ Mims and Marco Jones form the front four, with Daymion Sanford and Noah Mikhail at linebacker and Julio Humphrey and Dezz Ricks at corner. David Olano is the kicker, and Tyler White is the punter.

The defensive lines are closer than you’d expect. The Citadel’s front four averages about 272 pounds, compared to 282 for A&M’s.

What Each Team Needs

The Citadel has to run the ball, hold onto it and avoid special teams mistakes. A long, steady drive shortens the game and keeps A&M’s offense off the field. But the Bulldogs can’t afford the turnovers and breakdowns that have hurt them all year.

Texas A&M needs to protect Reed and get the ground game moving. The Aggies have a clear edge in talent, so this is a chance to get the offense back on track, rebuild some confidence and avoid a loss that would be much harder to explain than the last one.

Prediction

The Citadel can move the ball early with its run game, and the Bulldogs may find the end zone. But the gap in size and depth should show as the game goes on, and A&M’s line and speed should wear down a smaller roster.

Our pick: Texas A&M 41, The Citadel 10.