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Heels Fall Apart After Strong Start
The Diamond Heels got off to a great start in game one against Southern California on friday afternoon. But things fell apart rapidly. Following some questionable calls at home plate, the Trojans smacked a grand slam over the left field wall and didn’t look back. Carolina must now climb their way out of a statistically massive hole to make it to Omaha. I took a look at some of the numbers.
My rule to live by in sports is that numbers never lie, only people do. Well, the numbers don’t look too good for the Tar Heels. The most daunting number by far is that the team that loses game one of Supers advances only 21.2% of the time. This means that the initial 14% chance the Heels had to advance before the start of game one has now dropped down to 7.5%. The Tar Heels were 44-0 leading into today with a 2-run lead this season. With a win tomorrow, the Heels chances advancing jump to just 57.4%.
To a new college baseball fan, those numbers might not seem so bad. They are absolutely that bad. On average, less than one team per year Advances to Omaha after losing game one. That means, statistically, the Tar Heels need to do something that only happens once every two years. So, the milion dollar question: how do you quantify magic?
Mathematically speaking, every rule has an exception. The Diamond Heels have a knack for being that exception under the leadership of Coach Forbes. So much so that the phrase “Bosh Magic” has become synonymous with the program in Chapel Hill come postseason. Statistically, this series is over. But in reality? Math has absolutely no way to quantify luck or “magic” accurately. And that’s exactly what the Heels need now.
With Jackson Rose, Mathew Mathjis, Walker Mcduffie, and Ryan Lynch all seeing action today, the Heels will have to go deep in the pen tomake it to Omaha. Coach Forbes and the Tar Heels have the ultimate ace up the sleeve: Caden Glauber. Every pitcher that saw action today is more than capable of pitching again on sunday if needed. Jason Decaro will get the start on Saturday for the Heels, and he is no stranger to pitching off-rotation. The road ahead is difficult, but not impassible.
The Heels have a chance.
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