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Game Context
Arizona State (ASU) hosts Houston in Tempe at Mountain America Stadium. Arizona State enters ranked No. 24 in the AP poll and looks to build on a strong home-field run. Houston, meanwhile, has been surging on the road and is showing signs of progress under head coach Willie Fritz. The series history is modest—ASU leads 5-4—but they haven’t met in decades, so there’s freshness to this matchup.
With both teams competing in the Big 12 and having one or fewer conference losses entering the game, this matchup has significant implications for standings, momentum, and bowl eligibility. Winner of this game remains near the top with chances to head to Arlington on December 9th to compete for a CCG birth. The loser is going to need some help to get back to Arlington.
Breakout Player to Watch:
For Arizona State: I’d spotlight RB Raleek Brown. He’s averaging ~91.7 rushing yards per game (second in the Big 12) and is prolific in yards after contact, missed tackles forced, and all-purpose yards. If ASU wants to control tempo, take pressure off the passing game, and dominate the line of scrimmage, Brown is the guy.
For Houston: Keep your eye on QB Conner Weigman. In their recent contest, he rushed for 98 yards and threw three touchdowns, averaging around 7 yards per carry as a quarterback — a rare feat for this level. If Houston wants to punch above its weight, his dual-threat ability could tip the game.
Given the matchup, I lean toward ASU’s Raleek Brown as the more likely breakout because ASU will likely lean into their established backfield and home-field advantage. So: Breakout Player: Raleek Brown (ASU).
What ASU Must Do
- Control the line of scrimmage & dominate the run game. Arizona State has proven capable of forcing missed tackles, holding opponents to ~110 rushing yards per game, and when they rush for 200+ yards, they’re 10-3 with coach Kenny Dillingham. Establishing the run early will take pressure off QB Sam Leavitt and the passing attack and keep Houston’s defense off the field.
- Protect the ball and win the turnover battle. Arizona State is 11-0 in games where Leavitt does not throw an interception. Houston has shown the ability to make explosive plays with Weigman’s legs and arm, so avoiding self-inflicted damage will be critical.
- Limit big plays and finish drives. ASU’s defense is showing up (for example, holding opponents to low yards per play, quality red-zone numbers), but if Houston can flip field position or rip off chunk gains, it could change the rhythm. From ASU’s notes: They’ve allowed just ~5.07 yards per play this season and hold opponents to ~22 % of drives starting in their own 20 resulting in touchdowns. Don’t give Houston momentum swings.
What Houston Must Do
- Exploit the QB’s mobility and make ASU defend horizontally. Weigman’s rushing ability gives Houston a unique wrinkle; ASU must stay disciplined as defenders and not over-pursue. Houston should design runs for him and play-action off them, forcing ASU’s defense to respect both phases.
- Force Arizona State into one-dimensional passing situations. If Houston can shut down or slow the ASU run game (especially Brown) the Sun Devils may lean on the pass more. Houston’s defense, which allows ~19.0 points per game – 27th-fewest in FBS per ASU notes, can make things uncomfortable in those situations.
- Stay consistent on special teams and capitalize on scoring opportunities. Houston kicker Ethan Sanchez has come up big in recent games (e.g., the walk-off field goal vs Arizona). When this game is tight, special teams and field position matter. Houston must avoid self-inflicted errors and win the hidden phases of the game.
Projected Winner and Score
This is a tough one. Arizona State has the home-field edge, the more experienced rushing attack, and a defense that in recent weeks has looked solid. Houston is improving rapidly, has momentum on the road, and the dynamic element of Weigman makes them dangerous.
Prediction: I lean toward Arizona State to win—but by a narrow margin, because Houston has the capacity to keep it close.
Predicted score: ASU 28, Houston 24.
Final Thoughts:
Expect a competitive game that hinges on who can impose their will early. If Arizona State controls the pace and executes the run/pass mix while limiting mistakes, they win. If Houston’s QB mobility and variety in offense force ASU into uncomfortable spots, the upset is very much on the table.
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