Did Vanderbilt Make Their Case For CFP?

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NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) — Vanderbilt entered the 2025 season with modest external expectations. It now exits November with a résumé the College Football Playoff committee can’t easily overlook. The Commodores (10–2, 6–2 SEC) closed the regular season with a commanding 45–24 win over Tennessee — their first victory in Knoxville in more than a decade — behind 433 total yards from quarterback Diego Pavia. Combined with signature wins over Missouri and LSU, Vanderbilt has transformed itself from a preseason afterthought into a legitimate at-large contender in the expanded 12-team playoff.

Vandy’s Statement Wins Put Everyone on Notice

The Commodores began their push with a gritty 17–10 road win at Missouri on Oct. 25. The Tigers were ranked at the time, giving the victory immediate significance, though Missouri later fell out of the Top 25. Vanderbilt followed that with a marquee 31–24 win over No. 10 LSU at FirstBank Stadium — another ranked team that later dropped from the poll. Pavia accounted for three touchdowns in that game, including two on the ground, vaulting Vanderbilt into the AP Top 10 for the first time since 1947.

The defining moment came Nov. 29, when Vanderbilt dominated Tennessee 45–24. After trailing at halftime, the Commodores outscored the Vols 24–3 in the second half, racking up 284 yards while holding Tennessee to minus-6 rushing yards after the break. It was the kind of win that screams playoff caliber.

Diego Pavia: The QB Who Can Carry a Program

Pavia’s play has reset the ceiling for Vanderbilt. The dual-threat quarterback has surpassed 3,000 passing yards while also leading the team in rushing, giving Vanderbilt an every-down weapon. His playmaking elevates everyone around him — from tight end Eli Stowers, who has become a reliable big-play option, to running back Sedrick Alexander, whose second-half surges helped close key games.

With Pavia at the helm, Vanderbilt has gone from “tough out” to “team no one wants to face in December.”

The Blemishes: Texas and Alabama Still Matter

The Commodores’ two losses — a 30–14 defeat at Alabama and a narrow 34–31 loss at Texas — provide ammunition for detractors. Vanderbilt struggled to finish drives in both contests, and Pavia faced relentless pressure behind a line that has otherwise been solid. Yet both losses came against elite programs and on the road, the type of setbacks the committee has historically been willing to overlook when the rest of the résumé shines.

Where Vanderbilt Fits in the 12-Team Playoff Picture

In the expanded format, six automatic bids go to conference champions, leaving six at-large spots for the highest-ranked remaining teams. Vanderbilt’s competition for those slots likely includes Notre Dame, Ole Miss, Utah, Oklahoma and the second- or third-place finishers from the SEC and Big Ten.

Projected scenario:

Locks via auto-bids: Big Ten champ, SEC champ, Big 12 champ, ACC champ, Pac-12 champ, top G5 champion
At-large contenders: SEC runner-up, Big Ten runner-up, top 1–2 from Big 12/ACC, plus two wild cards

Vanderbilt’s résumé — even with LSU and Missouri falling out of the Top 25 later — compares favorably with nearly every team ranked 9–14: ranked wins at the time, road victories in the toughest conference, zero losses to sub-.500 teams, and a finale that strengthened their case. If the committee rewards teams peaking in November, Vanderbilt sits in a prime position.

The Win That Forces the Committee to Take Notice

Vanderbilt’s emphatic win over Tennessee may not automatically punch their ticket into the 12-team College Football Playoff — but it does something just as significant. It forces the committee to take Vanderbilt seriously, to give their résumé a real evaluation, and, if they leave them out, to do it only after acknowledging everything this team accomplished. A 10–2 record, victories over Missouri, LSU and Tennessee, and a November surge behind one of the nation’s most dynamic quarterbacks ensure Vanderbilt cannot simply be brushed aside. The losses to Texas and Alabama are blemishes, but not deal-breakers. The playoff door may or may not open, but Saturday night in Knoxville made absolutely certain the committee must pause, reassess, and seriously consider this team.