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Two weeks into the 2025–26 season, and Mountain West Basketball is already living up to its reputation as one of college basketball’s most unpredictable, entertaining, and quietly powerful conferences. The league currently sits sixth nationally in overall efficiency, according to KenPom, slotting just behind the Big East and ahead of the Atlantic 10 and West Coast Conference. And while the top looks strong and decisive, the middle of the pack is as chaotic as ever — the kind of chaos that makes this league worth following every night.
Using the latest KenPom data, here’s how the conference stacks up right now, what the early results mean, and where the numbers think each team is headed.
San Diego State: The Mountain West Standard Once Again
San Diego State has opened the season looking exactly like San Diego State always does: physical, disciplined, and suffocating on defense. Through two games, the Aztecs own a +20.22 adjusted Net Rating, the best in the league by a wide margin. Their defense ranks eighth nationally, and even with only a small sample size, the formula is familiar — if you’re playing SDSU, prepare to grind.
They’ve yet to notch a signature win, but efficiency-wise, they’ve been dominant. KenPom projects them to go 15–5 in conference play, and nothing about their early performance suggests their crown is slipping. For now, the Aztecs remain the team everyone else must chase.
Utah State: Offense Good Enough to Win the Mountain West
If anyone is capable of dethroning SDSU, it may be Utah State. The Aggies are 4–0 with the conference’s most complete offensive profile so far. Their 116.9 adjusted offensive efficiency is elite, and their defense is sturdy enough to support it. They’ve already beaten a top-150 Tulane team and look confident and composed.
KenPom projects a 14–6 finish for Utah State — firmly in the race for a conference title and comfortably in at-large NCAA Tournament territory. Their ceiling is as high as anyone’s, not wearing red and black.
Colorado State: The Dark Horse With Real Bite
Colorado State’s offense has been the most eye-catching operation in the league. The Rams aren’t just scoring — they’re dismantling defenses with sharp ball movement and high-level shotmaking. Their adjusted offense sits at 119.5, the best in the Mountain West and one of the best in the nation.
The real shockwave came in their 80-67 win over Loyola Chicago. That game turned heads nationally and validated CSU’s early numbers. The defense still needs work, but the Rams project to go 14–6 and look every bit like a top-three team capable of making real noise in March.
Boise State: Reliable, Rugged, and Still Missing a Statement
Boise State sits at 3–1 with the profile of a classic Boise team: tough, deliberate, and defense-first. Their offense is performing slightly above expectations, but the defense hasn’t quite locked in yet. They’ve still managed a strong +14.58 Net Rating through four games.
A catastrophic loss that is not factored into projections due to their D2 conference affiliation was the 79-78 Home loss to Hawaii Pacific. This sort of game separates at-large candidates from bubble teams. KenPom projects the Broncos to go 13–7 in league play, likely putting them right in the tournament conversation by February.
Grand Canyon: A Strong, Underrated Mountain West
In their first season in the Mountain West, Grand Canyon has held its own. They’re 2–2 with a profile that suggests they’ll be competitive every night but volatile enough to drop games they shouldn’t. Their defensive efficiency is strong, but the offense has been inconsistent and prone to droughts.
KenPom sees the Lopes finishing 9–11 in conference play, which feels right: too good to fall into the bottom tier, yet not polished enough to crack the top four. Their loss to Youngstown State was a surprise, but nothing season-defining. Their second loss of the season to Saint Louis, which was a projected loss, shows that Grand Canyon does have the grit to be a top-tier team.
Nevada: Steady and Competitive, but Not Quite Dangerous
Nevada has looked solid through four games, but they haven’t done anything to convince observers that it belongs in the top tier. Their offensive numbers are good, and the defense is respectable, but they lack a signature win and just suffered a one-sided loss to Nebraska.
The Wolf Pack project is to finish around 9–11, comfortably in the middle of the conference. They have the structure to be an NIT team, but unless their offense grows sharper, they’re unlikely to contend for an NCAA berth.
New Mexico: A Step Below Expectations — For Now
The Lobos entered the year with cautious optimism, but early performances suggest they’re still adjusting to new roles and identities. Their offense isn’t as explosive as last season, and the defense has been inconsistent. A 7-point loss to Nebraska underscored the issues.
New Mexico currently projects to go 10–10 in the Mountain West, squarely in the league’s middle. There’s enough talent here to climb, but right now they look more like a bubble long shot than a top-tier challenger.
UNLV: The Mountain West Enigma
UNLV is the most confusing team in the conference. Their offense is legitimately good — even top-50 good. Their defense, however, is a problem. At 113.7 adjusted defensive efficiency, they simply cannot get stops against competent teams.
The Rebels project to finish 10–10, but their potential range is enormous. They have the athletes to beat anyone in the league and the inconsistency to lose to anyone as well. Their loss to Montana was another reminder that UNLV remains a mystery box, even two weeks in.
Wyoming: Undefeated, but Not Exactly Convincing
Wyoming’s 4–0 start looks nice on paper, but KenPom’s numbers are clear: the record doesn’t hold up to scrutiny. The Cowboys have played one of the weakest schedules in the country, and both their offense and defense are rated slightly below average.
Their projection of 8–12 reflects this reality. Unless Wyoming shows real growth in December, the unbeaten start will likely be remembered as a product of soft scheduling rather than a true indicator of strength.
San José State: A Difficult But Expected Rebuild
San José State’s 0–3 start is disappointing but hardly unexpected. The defense hasn’t held up, and the offense can only do so much. Their –2.18 Net Rating paints a clear picture of a roster still searching for cohesion.
They’re projected to go 6–14, fighting to stay out of the cellar.
Fresno State: Good Offense, Alarming Defense
Fresno State is the hardest team in the Mountain West to interpret. Their offense is perfectly functional and at times impressive. But their defense — one of the worst statistically in Division I — is sinking them. When you’re giving up points at that rate, the margin for error disappears.
Their 75–74 loss to Stephen F. Austin was a red flag, and their projection of 6–14 feels accurate.
Air Force: A Long Season Ahead
Unfortunately for Air Force, the numbers aren’t kind. Their offense sits near the bottom of the national rankings, and the defense hasn’t been much better. At 0–4 with a –13.67 Net Rating, the Falcons project to go 3–17 in conference play.
Simply put, they are well below the league’s competitive baseline at the moment.
Projected Mountain West Standings (Based on Performance So Far)
- San Diego State
- Utah State
- Colorado State
- Boise State
- Grand Canyon
- Nevada
- New Mexico
- UNLV
- Wyoming
- Fresno State
- San José State
- Air Force
Based on current projections, I don’t expect to see a repeat Mountain West Winner in either the regular season or the conference tournament. While this is by no means new blood, I think there is a clear 1-3, and everyone else falls into place behind.
The Outlook: Depth, Drama, and a Clear Top Tier
The Mountain West looks poised for another multi-bid year, and perhaps a stronger one than expected. The top three — San Diego State, Utah State, and Colorado State — all have the profile of NCAA Tournament teams. Boise State sits right on the bubble line, and at least three more teams have a pathway if things break right.
But the middle tier is crowded, flawed, and unpredictable, which should make conference play a nightly roller coaster.
Suppose the first two weeks are any indication. In that case, the Mountain West is once again one of the most entertaining leagues in college basketball — and its eventual champion may have to survive a gauntlet all the way from January to March.
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