NFL Preview 2023: NFC South Division
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As we continue to draw closer to the beginning of the 2023 NFL season, the excitement and drama are building for every fanbase with each passing day. The stories,the passion, the history. All of it leads to a fresh, new hope at the beginning of each and every football season. Your team could very well be the one to win it all this season. They could just as well earn the #1 overall draft pick by virtue of an horrific season. Regardless, hope springs eternal.
On the topic of teams earning high draft picks, today we’ll be taking a deep dive into the NFC South. That may be a slight exaggeration, but there truly are more questions than there are answers in the NFC South.
Coming off a down year when an 8-9 Tampa Bay squad won the division, the South is there for the taking. From the Atlanta Falcons and the New Orleans Saints to the Carolina Panthers and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, just what do the teams of the NFC South Division look like this season?
Atlanta Falcons
Major Additions:
RB Bijan Robinson (draft), S Jessie Bates, DE Calais Campbell
Major Losses:
WR Calvin Ridley
Where they were:
It was a middling 2022 season for the Atlanta Falcons. While they did contend for the division for several weeks, the Falcons finished in a three way tie for last place in the South by virtue of a 7-10 record. There were bright spots to be sure: the defense played well, the running game was excellent at times, and rookie 1st round WR Drake London showed some flashes. There were also some dark spots as 2nd year TE Kyle Pitts disappeared amid subpar QB play from a combination of Marcus Mariota and Desmond Ridder. Over the entire season, the absence of star WR Calvin Ridley, who was suspended for one year for gambling, hung like a storm cloud over the franchise. Ridley was traded to the Jaguars in the offseason, hopefully giving the Falcons closure on a tangled and embarrassing episode.
Where they are:
Young players give hope, and the Falcons certainly have their share of rising talents. From CB AJ Terell to WR Drake London to first round rookie RB Bijan Robinson, the weapons are present on both sides of the ball in Atlanta. However, with 2nd year Desmond Ridder or veteran Taylor Heinicke set to play QB for the Falcons this season, there are plenty of doubts about Atlanta’s chances in 2023.
The NFC South is eminently winnable. But Atlanta’s hopes ride on the right arm Ridder. If the former University of Cincinnati star can translate his college success to the pro level, the Atlanta Falcons could make some noise in the NFC South. But if he can’t get it done, Falcons fans could be in for yet another middling year. Draftkings has the Falcons win total over/under set at 8.5 wins, and while there’s a chance the young Falcons take a leap over their finish last year, I would say there’s an even greater chance their end result is worse than the year before.
Grade: Overrated
New Orleans Saints
Major Additions:
QB Derek Carr, RB Jamaal Williams
Major Losses:
DE Marcus Davenport
Where they were:
The Saints had high hopes riding into the 2022 season, but a combination of horrid offensive play and subpar defensive play from a unit that was expected to be among the top in the NFL doomed New Orleans to a three way tie for last in the NFC South with a 7-10 record.
Where they are:
A lot has changed in New Orleans this season as longtime Raiders QB Derek Carr signed with the Saints in the offseason. While not considered a star, Carr can bring stability to a QB room that has been volatile and unpredictable ever since the retirement of Saints legend and future Hall of Fame QB Drew Brees.
But all’s not sunshine and rainbows in New Orleans this season. Star RB Alvin Kamara faces a looming suspension for his involvement in a domestic assault case. Coming off a down year, the defense continues to age. 2nd year WR Chris Olave will look to build upon a fantastic rookie season, but beyond him the Saints WR room outlook looks a bit weak, with the oft-injured Michael Thomas the only name that stands out. Draftkings currently has the Saints win total over/under set at 9.5 games (the favorites in the South). That seems to be a reasonable number for an extremely talented (if aging) New Orleans squad.
Grade: Properly rated
Carolina Panthers
Major Additions:
QB Bryce Young, RB Miles Sanders, WR Adam Thielen
Major Losses:
WR DJ Moore
Where they were:
As has been the theme in the NFC South, the Panthers finished the year in a 3 way tie for last in the division with a 7-10 record. But unlike the two other teams that had the same result, the Panthers year was no disappointment. Despite featuring a combination of Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, and PJ Walker at QB, the 2022 Panthers greatly overachieved, carried by a young defense on the rise. Trading star RB Christian Mcaffery in the middle of the season certainly dealt a blow to an already awful Panthers offense, but through it all Carolina found a way to win football games.
Where they are:
Every NFL team dreams of having the #1 draft pick. It’s a franchise defining selection that can breathe life into the deadest of teams. And after an offseason trade with the Chicago Bears, the Panthers secured their new hope with Alabama QB Bryce Young. There’s a lot of new faces in Carolina this season, from the aforementioned Young to vet free agent additions WR Adam Thielen and RB Miles Sanders. There’s even a new face on the Panther sideline as Frank Reich replaces Matt Rhule as head coach.
While there’s plenty for Panthers faithful to be excited about this season, Carolina feels like they’re about two years away. Draftkings currently has the Panthers win total over/under at 7.5 wins, and that feels to be a reasonable achievement from this very young and very talented squad
Grade: Properly rated
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Major Additions:
DE Calijah Kancey (draft)
Major Losses:
QB Tom Brady, RB Leonard Fournette
Where they were:
The Buccaneers knew when they signed up to get legendary QB Tom Brady that they were all in. And their gamble paid off with a Super Bowl win two years ago in Brady’s first season in Florida. But the honeymoon ended in Tampa last season as the Buccaneers stumbled to an 8-9 season, barely winning the worst division in the NFL before quietly bowing out in a blowout wildcard round loss to the Dallas Cowboys. Brady announced his retirement before too long, and the Bucs were left to pick up the pieces.
Where they are:
The bill for winning Super Bowl LV has come due in Tampa Bay. The Bucs are in cap space hell, and dealing with a roster loaded with expensive aging veterans. Perhaps even worse is the QB situation, as Baker Mayfield and former 2nd round pick Kyle Trask do battle to see who will get the honor of guiding the Buccaneers to last place in the NFC South.
Draftkings has Tampa Bay’s win total over/under set at 6.5, and that’s a generous figure for the Brady-less Bucs.
Grade: Overrated
It’s anyone’s game
There’s a new QB at the helm for every team in the NFC South this season, and in todays NFL the play of the QB nearly always determines the success or failure of their franchise. The adjustment period as the QB’s take over their respective offenses must be as short as possible to maximize each team’s chances of a playoff berth. It’s a complete crapshoot in the NFC South this year, which could entail some exciting end of season battles for playoff position. It could also entail a year of mediocre football games ending with a wildcard round blowout for whichever team is lucky enough to haphazardly wander into the playoffs. Either way, you can be sure that we’ll be watching.
